Supply without demand: smartphone sales have collapsed in Russia

There is a collapse in the smartphone market: in the third quarter, compared to the same period in 2024, sales in units decreased by 20%, in money — by almost a quarter, the largest sellers of equipment told Izvestia. Apart from the force majeure event in the second quarter of 2022, we are talking about almost a record decline in demand, experts say. Russians are saving on these gadgets — they not only began to buy fewer of them, but now prefer cheaper models and modifications, experts add.

How much has the smartphone market shrunk

The largest sellers of gadgets told Izvestia about the collapse in the Russian smartphone market in the third quarter of 2025. In July – September, 6.2 million devices worth 140 billion rubles were sold in Russia, MTS reported. This means that in the third quarter, smartphone sales in Russia decreased by 19% in units and by 23% in money compared to the same period last year, they added. At the same time, the average check for a smartphone also decreased — it amounted to 22.5 thousand rubles against 23.6 thousand rubles a year earlier.

"On the whole, the market is moving towards rational consumption, as demand mainly prevails in the more budget segment and interest in Chinese brands is steadily growing," MTS said.

According to the company, Xiaomi became the most popular smartphone brand by sales in units with a share of 21%, followed by Realme — 13% and Tecno — 13%. Apple is traditionally the leader in money (24%), as well as Samsung (23%) and Xiaomi (14%).

Similar data is provided in the "Refrigerator.ru" and "M.Video-El Dorado". The combined retailer estimates that sales in the third quarter decreased by about 20% in units and by a quarter in monetary terms compared to the same period in 2024.

"The dynamics is related to cooling consumer demand against the background of attractive deposit rates and a reduction in bank lending, as well as a shift in the average check towards more affordable models," the company's press service noted.

Indeed, the Russian smartphone market is shrinking — a drop of about 20-25% compared to last year: this affected all segments and categories, with the exception of new products that are just entering the market, Andrey Tarasov, executive director of diHouse, told Izvestia.

— The decline in the smartphone market is due to the same reasons that related markets are declining: the transition of consumers to a depository model of saving money and the reluctance to update gadgets. Our expectations for the market by the end of the year are cautiously pessimistic, that is, so far there are no reasons to compensate for the market decline," he said.

According to Eldar Murtazin, a leading analyst at Mobile Research Group, this is almost a record decline in the Russian smartphone market year-on-year (the situation was worse only in the second quarter of 2022 due to the departure of the world's leading vendors from Russia and economic turbulence). Customers have switched to more rational consumption, he agrees. According to him, the third quarter is the season of new products and demand for them, but this year it clearly did not go well. Demand has gone from a high segment to a low one — those who used to buy smartphones for 100 thousand rubles are now buying new gadgets for 50 thousand, he claims.

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According to one of the market participants, expensive devices are now giving way to ultra-cheap ones (up to 10 thousand rubles). But Eldar Murtazin does not agree with these arguments: if there is an increase in this price segment, it is minimal.

— Over the past two years, all the buyers who wanted and could have bought expensive and not so expensive smartphones. Now they have neither the money nor the need to buy high—budget devices," the expert argues.

MegaFon told Izvestia that they are observing a certain stagnation in demand for smartphones this year. However, in the low price segment (up to 10 thousand rubles), the slowdown in demand is significantly lower than in the smartphone market as a whole, they added.

What will happen to the smartphone market next

The high key rate encourages the population to save rather than spend, besides, there is an excess of phones in the market in 2023-2024, which are quite competitive and cover most of the needs of users, says one of the participants in the electronics market. In the future, a tightening of fiscal policy (for example, an increase in VAT) may lead to an increase in the cost of equipment in general, the Izvestia interlocutor fears.

However, not all market participants record a drop in smartphone sales.

According to Avito, sales of new smartphones in Russia in the third quarter of 2025 continue to show positive dynamics — compared to the same period last year, it increased by 13%, said Pavel Komarov, head of the Electronics and Home Appliances business area of the trading platform.

— We record a steady interest of Russians in smartphones, including premium models. Towards the end of the year, we expect an additional increase in interest, as many buyers traditionally choose these gadgets as gifts for the New Year," he told Izvestia.

Sales of mobile phones on Wildberries are showing very high dynamics, says David Davidyan, Head of Smartphones at Wildberries & Russ. The good growth rates are explained by the widest possible range of smartphones. New items appear on the showcase of the marketplace simultaneously with the start of global sales, and high competition among sellers contributes to an optimal price level for equipment, he noted.

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At the same time, the average selling price of a smartphone does not show long—term jumps - its dynamics is more related to the promotional activity of individual manufacturers, says the commercial director of Refrigerator.<url>" Alexey Pogudalov.

— In general, the decline in smartphone sales reflects a broader economic trend — a reduction in demand for durable goods. According to our estimates, the market will maintain negative dynamics by the end of the year: minus 15-18% in units and about 20% in money," he predicts.

There are no prerequisites for an increase in demand for smartphones yet, says Denis Kuskov, CEO of TelecomDaily. The season of school fees and entry into the market did not have an impressive impact on sales. The high rate of the Central Bank forces buyers to redistribute costs — and not in favor of new electronics, the expert points out.

Whether the situation will change in the fourth quarter of 2025 depends on many factors, in particular, on how active the New Year sales will be, he concludes.