"We do not see an increase in loan restructuring refusals"

By the end of the year, the key rate could be 14-15%, but this level is still high enough for the economy to start a new investment cycle. Alexander Vedyakhin, First Deputy Chairman of the Board of Sberbank, told Izvestia at the WEF-2025. To resume, you need a rate of 12% or lower. Now the key rate remains high, however, in his opinion, there are no threats of bankruptcy of developers. In an exclusive interview with Alexander Vedyakhin, we will talk about whether there are risks of a non—payment crisis and in which sectors of the economy enterprises are shifting high interest costs to consumers.

"There are no signs of a non-payment crisis right now"

— The head of the Savings Bank, German Gref, warned about the problem of overdue loans and noted the risks of a non-payment crisis. How do you rate them?

— We are now looking at the figures and we see that the overall quality of the portfolio is at a good level — about 2% overdue. This definitely doesn't raise any questions right now.

Regarding payments and non—payments, it is necessary to pay attention to how the economy as a whole works. At the same time, it is important to understand that the structure of interaction in the economy is much more complex than just payments to banks. We see that large corporations and the largest market players are trying to delay the moment of payment as long as possible. Conversely, when they receive some kind of advance payment, they try to do it as quickly as possible.

This, of course, creates pressure within the corporate segment. But, unfortunately, small and medium-sized businesses suffer in this case. Now we are seeing such alarming trends in this sector of the entire large portfolio of corporate clients. But we are confident that the situation will stabilize.

— As the largest bank in the country, you probably feel this situation with a possible non-payment crisis better than anyone else. In your opinion, will it come to the point where government intervention is required in such a situation?

"I'm sure not. There are no signs of a non-payment crisis right now. We are talking about the redistribution of money within the economy from small players towards the largest ones. It's a complicated process, sometimes painful.

"The bank is interested in ensuring that the borrower remains solvent"

— In the second quarter of this year, banks rejected 80% of all applications from Russians for loan restructuring. Why do you think there are so many refusals?

— We do not see an increase in refusals to restructure, at least within Sberbank. And we are actively restructuring all individuals and legal entities who contact us at the bank. We are doing well in this regard.

— Do you see any risks for citizens in this now?

— If a citizen has a difficult financial situation, he should come to the bank and restructure it. Because together the client and the financial institution will better understand how to get out of this situation. The bank is also interested in ensuring that the borrower remains solvent.

When the financial situation worsens, customers sometimes go to borrowers instead of the bank. But it's a bad choice. They sometimes suggest to him very strange schemes of personal bankruptcy, avoidance of credit responsibility. As a result, it ends badly for the client — his credit history is violated. And then the customers don't know what to do about it. Moreover, the cost of such "pseudo-helpers" is sometimes comparable to the amount of the loan that is proposed not to be paid. My appeal to all clients who feel that they cannot service their debts is to come to the bank and negotiate normally.

"It will be easier for customers to breathe when the rate goes down"

— Alexander Alexandrovich, the issue that concerns everyone — both small and medium—sized businesses, large businesses, and, of course, consumers - is a key bet. What are your short-term and long-term forecasts?

— We are also concerned about this issue. We look at the dynamics of price growth and see that it is now, in our understanding, in the range of 4-6%. We are not talking about the inflation accumulated over the year, but rather in a specific period of time. And this indicator is very close to the target of the Central Bank.

We see that the unemployment market is still overheated, but a gradual downward trend is beginning. We believe that based on these signals, it would be reasonable for the economy to lower the rate at the next meeting of the regulator on September 12 by 2 percentage points to 16% per annum.

We hope that the rate will be at 14-15% by the end of the year. But at the same time, it must be understood that 14-15% is also a very difficult rate for the economy to start a new investment cycle. At high stakes, all projects, especially large ones, were frozen. It takes about 9-12 months to restart the investment cycle for an average project. For a large one — from one and a half to three years. Therefore, these projects are carried out at a rate of about 12% per annum. To resume the economic cycle, a rate of 12% or lower is needed. I sincerely hope that we will have her next year.

— You have noted that enterprises are shifting high interest costs to the consumer. How does this happen? In which industries is this trend particularly noticeable?

— There are three types of industries. The first one is the ones that can definitely shift. For example, in trade, this happens through the price of goods. The second type is those industries that are heavily regulated. Let's say housing and communal services are difficult to shift there. And the third one is those areas that we would like to shift to the consumer, but they have a difficult market situation. In particular, the coal industry — global prices for this type of fuel are at historic lows.

We look at each of these industries and, based on this, adjust our credit policy. As well as those of our clients who find it difficult to transfer to the consumer, we are restructuring them so that they adapt their business to the realities of the market.

It will become easier for customers to breathe after the rate reduction.

"We don't see any bankruptcy risks for developers"

— In conditions of such a rate, the housing market is very overheated. The processes that are currently taking place there are of concern to everyone. And the construction of new housing, and the secondary... Do you think there are any bankruptcy risks for developers?

— We do not see any bankruptcy risks for developers. Due to the fact that the market structure is now good, as well as the tools (in the form of escrow accounts). And most importantly, we do not see any threats to those who invest in housing. In any case, they will get their money. High key and tension in the real estate market set requirements for the quality of projects and management. Previously, players worked in a more relaxed mode — as long as the market was growing and the rate was low, all mistakes were forgiven.

This is not the case now. We see consolidation and, strictly speaking, inefficient players are transferring their land bank to more efficient players. The market is being reorganized in favor of the most efficient ones. I think this will be of great benefit to the end users.

— Can the gap in the pricing policy of primary and secondary housing turn into some kind of crisis?

"I don't think so." There is a gap, but again it is a question of market saturation and how consumers react. We don't see any system calls.

— According to the Central Bank, the price gap is 80% in the Central Federal District. Isn't that a lot?

— This is how the market functions. We do not see any systemic problems related to consumer behavior.

— What are your forecasts for the introduction of artificial intelligence (AI)? Will we be able to be friends with him and control him?

— We have no options not to use artificial intelligence. This becomes the basic competence of any student, employee, or manager, and it will develop further.

The good news is that artificial intelligence is developing quite well in Russia. We have our own national models — these are the Sber GigaChat and YandexGPT, respectively. We can only move forward by having our own artificial intelligence models.