Old calculations: Hezbollah is preparing for a new confrontation with Israel
Hezbollah is rebuilding its elite Radwan units north of the Litani River, an Israeli source told Izvestia. According to him, the movement wants to restore the combat capability of the units, despite the ongoing attacks by the IDF and Beirut's plans to disarm all armed groups. In Lebanon, they believe that Israel is trying to take advantage of the opportunity to continue its strikes. Meanwhile, the leader of Hezbollah, Naim Qassem, rejected the possibility of transferring weapons to the Lebanese authorities while the Israeli occupation in the south of the country remains. Whether there are risks of renewed fighting on the border is in the Izvestia article.
Hezbollah can regain its strength
Israel records the restoration of the elite Radwan special forces of the Shiite Hezbollah movement, Izvestia found out. According to an Israeli source, the Lebanese-based movement wants to revive the combat capability of the detachments north of the Litani River, despite Beirut's plans to disarm all paramilitary groups.
— Hezbollah is trying to restore its training capabilities, and the IDF is resisting these efforts. We see how Hezbollah is seeking to restore the forces of the Radwan brigades, in particular by moving them north of the Litani River to avoid attacks," the source said.
Meanwhile, the Israeli press writes with alarm that Hezbollah has not been defeated, but is only "healing its wounds" and is able to return even stronger. The newspaper "Maariv", making a similar statement, refers to army data on the reduction of the number of "Radwan" from 6 thousand to less than 3 thousand fighters, which, according to Israeli officers, pushes the movement to recruit new recruits.
Sarit Zehavi, a retired lieutenant colonel and president of the Alma Israeli Research Center, confirms this position. In a conversation with Izvestia, she noted that Hezbollah operates covertly and with mobile groups, including through the Badr unit located north of Litani.
— We see them returning to the south, as many of them live there. Thus, they are trying to restore their military activity there as well. But today, Hezbollah is focused on rebuilding its operations covertly and mobile, mainly through a unit called Badr, which is located north of the Litani River. They do not have the opportunity to invade at the moment, but they may be able to carry out a small attack with the participation of several militants against settlements near the border. I'm not sure if they want to do this," Zehavi said.
The authorities in West Jerusalem, however, are trying to link the army narrative with the diplomatic agenda. Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's office said Israel was ready to support Beirut's efforts to disarm Hezbollah and, in exchange, gradually reduce its army presence in southern Lebanon. In February, the IDF actually completed part of the withdrawal, according to the truce reached in November 2024. However, five strategic positions remained under Israeli control. They explain this by the "need to ensure security," which causes sharp discontent in Lebanon.
The threat of a new Israeli operation still persists, says Jamal Wakim, a professor at the Lebanese University. According to him, the war has not ended, and Lebanon is being shelled daily.
— Israel is striving to consolidate a new reality that will allow it to benefit for decades. That is why the risk remains, and the key question today is whether the resistance will be able to maintain its deterrence potential," Jamal Wakim stressed.
The expert added that with statements about the restoration of Radwan forces, Israel seeks to justify the continuation of strikes on Lebanon and the occupation of territories in the south of the country.
Disarming Hezbollah
The key factor influencing the situation in southern Lebanon remains the implementation of the ceasefire agreements between Israel and Hezbollah. On September 23, 2024, Israel launched Operation Arrows of the North against Hezbollah, launching airstrikes against targets in Lebanon. On September 27, the long-term Secretary General of the movement, Hassan Nasrallah, was killed in a bombing in Beirut. Despite this, Hezbollah declared its readiness to continue resistance. On October 1, the Israeli army launched a full-scale ground operation in southern Lebanon.
The ceasefire agreement entered into force on November 27, 2024. According to the agreements, Israel was obliged to withdraw its troops from the territory of Lebanon within 60 days, and Hezbollah should move its armed formations north of the Litani River. The agreement also provides for Lebanon's control of the southern border with the support of the United Nations Interim Force in Lebanon (UNIFIL).
According to the agreements, on August 5, the Lebanese government instructed the army to prepare a plan for the transfer of weapons from all formations to the state. Prime Minister Nawaf Salam stressed that the main goal is "to concentrate all the weapons in the country in the hands of the state." According to the draft, Hezbollah should transfer half of the missile arsenal to the Lebanese army. In exchange, Israel undertakes to withdraw troops from the occupied territories. The final approval of the document is scheduled for September 2, and the disarmament of the movement should be completed by the end of this year.
However, the Secretary General of Hezbollah, Naim Qassem, strongly opposed it. He stated that in the context of the ongoing strikes and the presence of Israeli troops, the movement does not intend to surrender its weapons. "Any roadmap should include the cessation of aggression, the withdrawal of the occupying forces, the release of prisoners and the restoration of the southern regions," he stressed. According to Kasem, only if these conditions are met is it possible to discuss a defensive strategy with the state.
Tensions in the country are also growing against the background of active US intervention. The scandal was caused by the behavior of Washington's special envoy to the Middle East, Thomas Barak, who rudely addressed reporters during a visit to Beirut. At the beginning of the press conference following the meeting with representatives of the Lebanese authorities, the diplomat said: "Behave in a civilized manner, if you behave like animals, then we will leave." The harsh words provoked protests from residents in southern Lebanon, which forced the diplomat to cancel part of his program.
By the way, on August 28, the UN Security Council extended the mandate of the peacekeeping mission in Lebanon (UNIFIL) for another year. This issue has been the subject of heated discussions over the past few months. In particular, the United States and Israel did not want to extend the mission, insisting that the presence of peacekeepers does not contribute to the disarmament of Hezbollah. However, according to the Security Council resolution, the mission's operations in the south of the country will last until the end of 2026, after which a phased withdrawal of 10.8 thousand military and civilian personnel, along with equipment, will begin, agreed with the Government of Lebanon. It should be completed within a year.
Nawaf Salam welcomed the decision to extend the mission and called on Israel to withdraw troops from five occupied sites in the south of the country, stressing the need to restore State control over the entire territory. At the same time, Israel's permanent Representative to the United Nations, Danny Danon, said that "the decision to withdraw UNIFIL from southern Lebanon in 2027 is good news."
Переведено сервисом «Яндекс Переводчик»
