Nuclear verdict: UN sanctions against Iran may return in the coming weeks

France, Germany and the United Kingdom are ready to restore UN sanctions against Iran in the event of the failure of the nuclear deal. At the same time, Russia, which has been chairing the Security Council since October, can only delay the process, but not block it, experts explained to Izvestia. Disagreements remain within Iran: radical forces insist on continuing uranium enrichment at high levels, while more pragmatic representatives of the elite are ready to compromise with Europe and Washington. If Tehran does not agree to concessions, Israel and the United States may strike at nuclear infrastructure facilities again. Now much will depend on the results of the meeting of Iranian officials with representatives of the Eurotroika in Geneva.

Europe gives Tehran an ultimatum on nuclear program

Iran will face the risk of renewed UN Security Council sanctions in the coming weeks. We are talking about the restrictions lifted 10 years ago within the framework of a historic agreement — the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action. Earlier, the JCPOA participants France, Germany and the United Kingdom threatened to use the mechanism of "return" of sanctions ("snapback") in case of lack of progress on the nuclear deal. Against this background, in Geneva, representatives of Iran agreed to meet with colleagues from the Eurotroika or E3.

Paris, Berlin and London hedged their bets in advance, intending to launch the process exactly by August 31, so that it would be completed before Russia assumed the presidency of the Security Council in October (activation of the mechanism would take another 30 days). Otherwise, according to Western countries, it will significantly complicate the procedure for returning to sanctions.

Since the United Kingdom, Germany and France signed the 2015 nuclear agreement, they can formally activate the mechanism for restoring Security Council sanctions. To do this, they must pull off a rather complicated and seemingly illogical procedure — initiate a vote on a resolution to extend the lifting of sanctions, and then vote against it.

It is impossible to stop snapback just like that, Vladimir Sazhin, a senior researcher at the Institute of Oriental Studies of the Russian Academy of Sciences, an Iranian scientist, told Izvestia. According to him, the maximum that Russia can do as chairman of the Security Council is to delay the voting process until October 19. He recalled that on October 18, the legal effect of the relevant UN Security Council resolution (2231), which implies a nuclear deal, expires.

Former UN Deputy Secretary General Sergei Ordzhonikidze also noted in an interview with Izvestia that if a resolution is introduced, Russia, as chairman of the Security Council, will only be able to postpone consideration of the issue. It is impossible to block a document even with the powers of the Chairman of the Security Council.

— These sanctions, if imposed, are considered internationally approved by the UN Security Council. Of course, both China and Russia can, without publicly announcing, simply slow down the process of imposing sanctions on their part, but other countries will be obliged to comply with the requirements of the Security Council and impose restrictions," said Vladimir Sazhin.

Russia is against the restoration of sanctions against Iran

However, the Europeans are still considering a different, "peaceful" scenario. They proposed postponing the automatic return of sanctions if Iran resumed dialogue with the United States and began cooperation with the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), suspended after the 12-day war with Israel.

The day before, Iranian President Masoud Peseshkian discussed the nuclear issue with Vladimir Putin, thanking Moscow for its support in protecting Tehran's right to develop enriched uranium. According to the Iranian news agency IRNA, the head of the Russian Federation expressed the hope that "negotiations on UN Security Council resolution 2231 will be completed successfully."

It is important to emphasize that Russia is questioning the legitimacy of the Westerners' threat to initiate a "snapback." Russia's permanent representative to international organizations in Vienna, Mikhail Ulyanov, previously told Izvestia that the United States, which withdrew from the JCPOA, and especially European countries that tightened their own sanctions against Iran, violated the deal and thus deprived themselves of the right to launch snapback. So, after the unilateral withdrawal of the United States from the JCPOA under Trump in 2018, Europe was unable to fulfill its obligations to ensure trade and banking operations with Iran.

Against this background, CNN reported that Iran is considering options for limiting cooperation with the IAEA, withdrawing from the Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons and adding the Eurotroika countries to the list of "hostile states." This will allow the Iranian armed forces to inspect ships flying their flag or belonging to them in the Persian and Oman Gulfs.

"E3 is further undermining its credibility by acting up like a disappointed child. They have lost their moral and political compass," an unnamed Iranian source told CNN.

At the same time, Vladimir Sazhin points out that there is no unified position within Iran on the issue of uranium enrichment. Radical forces in the elite insist on continuing the nuclear program without restrictions, while another part advocates negotiations not only with the Europeans, but also with the United States. The American side, he noted, demands a complete cessation of uranium enrichment and suggests that Iran purchase it abroad, which many in Tehran perceive as a threat to sovereignty.

— If Tehran does not compromise, first of all with Washington, negotiations will be blocked, and this may lead to new attacks on Iranian facilities, including from Israel. The situation remains extremely difficult and largely depends on the internal political balance of power in Tehran and the position of Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei.

Masoud Peseshkian noted in a recent interview with Al Jazeera that Iran does not intend to develop nuclear weapons, but will continue to enrich uranium within the limits of international law. Responding to the words of US President Donald Trump about the inadmissibility of Iran's possession of nuclear weapons, Peseshkian stressed that Tehran shares this position. Earlier, concerns were raised by one of the IAEA reports on Tehran's enrichment of uranium to 60%, which, according to Israel, serves as a step towards the creation of nuclear weapons and justifies attacks on Iranian facilities. At the same time, Peseshkian noted that the idea of the destruction of the Iranian nuclear program after the strikes by the United States and Israel is erroneous, since its potential is based on the knowledge of scientists, and not on physical objects.