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- A word in self-defense: The United States avoids direct involvement in security guarantees for Ukraine
A word in self-defense: The United States avoids direct involvement in security guarantees for Ukraine
Washington avoids direct participation in the discussion of guarantees for Kiev. Meanwhile, the European Union is trying to slow down the settlement process that began in Anchorage, Grigory Karasin, head of the Federation Council's International Affairs Committee, told Izvestia. When discussing security guarantees for Ukraine, proposals were again made to send military contingents there, which is unacceptable for Moscow. In addition, Sergey Lavrov said that no guarantees can be discussed without the Russian Federation. At the same time, Kiev is already dictating its terms to the allies: it is waiting for concrete proposals from them by the end of August. At the same time, Ukraine is doing everything to disrupt the peace process: it is increasing pressure on believers, calling for the destruction of everything Russian, and delaying the transfer of detained residents of the Kursk region. The EU, like Ukraine, is trying to negotiate better terms for itself, experts say.
The United States and Europe are discussing security guarantees for Ukraine
The dialogue on ending the Ukrainian crisis has significantly accelerated on all fronts after the historic meeting between Vladimir Putin and Donald Trump in Anchorage. As Sergey Lavrov noted at a press conference on August 21 following talks with Indian Foreign Minister Subramaniam Jaishankar, "significant progress has been made in Alaska in advancing the definition of contours and specific parameters for resolving the Ukrainian crisis."
Russian President Vladimir Putin and US President Donald Trump during a meeting in Alaska
So far, this process has focused on discussing security guarantees for Kiev. So, the meeting of US Secretary of State Marco Rubio with national security advisers from Europe and Ukraine, announced on August 21 in the media, was presented as "delicate diplomatic negotiations." In general, the fact that European countries are discussing this issue not with each other, but with one of the key participants in the conflict settlement, already demonstrates some progress.
Russia really considers the principle of collective guarantees for Ukraine relevant, but they cannot be discussed without the Russian Federation, Lavrov emphasizes. Moreover, as at the Istanbul 2022 talks, Moscow supports the idea of the participation of all members of the UN Security Council, that is, Russia, the United States, France, Great Britain and China, which, as you know, was also not represented in the negotiations with Rubio.
By the way, the provision of guarantees under the type of Article 5 of the NATO Charter is currently being most vividly discussed, however, the alliance allegedly will not participate in them. As, apparently, its main participant, the United States, its inclusion seems to be minimal. US Vice President Jay dee Vance explicitly stated that the Europeans would bear the lion's share of providing these guarantees, because it was about "their continent and their security." Moreover, until it is clear what exactly is needed to end the conflict, the United States does not intend to assume any obligations at all.
By the way, by the evening of August 21, Donald Trump announced that in two weeks the situation with the Ukrainian settlement would become clearer. According to him, then you may have to act differently. Apparently, Washington, having given impetus to the settlement after Anchorage, took a somewhat wait-and-see attitude.
It is still unclear what the security guarantees that Moscow would agree to might look like. It is important to emphasize that the presence of foreign troops in Ukraine is unacceptable for Russia. Nevertheless, a number of Western countries are still demonstrating their willingness to send their contingents. In particular, Europe is calling on Trump to deploy American fighter jets in Romania, The Times newspaper writes. There are also public statements. For example, the Social Democratic Party of Germany (SPD) is ready to discuss the issue if the US military participates in such a mission. Although almost all German parties oppose sending Bundeswehr soldiers to Ukraine. Estonia is ready to send its peacekeepers there, and, for example, Lithuania offers something in between, which only raises more questions: to deploy military personnel, but only with a non-combat mission.
With its unconstructive position, the European Union is trying to slow down the process that began in Anchorage, Grigory Karasin, head of the Federation Council's International Affairs Committee, tells Izvestia.
— The Europeans are objectively acting as a brake on this process now. They give different interpretations to the documents, they keep talking about the military presence on the territory of Ukraine, which, of course, is unacceptable for us, because the main irritating factor, so to speak, is the NATO issue," the senator said.
This is also understood in the USA. European leaders did not want Trump to call Putin after meeting with them on August 18, citing the need for proper vetting and preparation, says Vance. European leaders may again disrupt the conclusion of a peace agreement between Russia and Ukraine, as in 2022, Hungarian Foreign Minister Peter Szijjarto said. Moreover, according to tradition, there is a split among European countries. Greece, for example, does not intend to send troops to Ukraine. The Polish Defense Ministry also denied rumors about the redeployment of contingents.
By delaying the settlement process, Europe is trying to ensure that the conflict ends on its terms, Kamran Hasanov, an expert at the INF, tells Izvestia.
— Three points are important for Europe. Firstly, so that transatlantic solidarity is not violated, secondly, so that Russia does not look like the victorious side after this world, and thirdly, so that Ukraine ends the conflict without losing face, being, in fact, a European project after Euromaidan," he said.
Against this background, the head of the European Council, Antonio Costa, said: it is important to continue to exert pressure through sanctions if Russia does not fulfill its obligations.
Ukraine is trying to prevent a settlement
The behavior of Europe, which advocates increased pressure on Russia, sends a clear signal to Kiev: there is no point in negotiating with Moscow until military means are fully exhausted. Thus, Vladimir Zelensky, despite his previous statements that Ukraine does not insist on a preliminary cease-fire before concluding a peace agreement, returned to this topic again. "We are entering a bilateral format, then a trilateral one. I believe that without agreements in a bilateral format and without one or another format of ceasefire, a trilateral one is almost impossible," he said.
— Zelensky demonstrates that he has made a choice. After some period of reflection and meetings with his European accomplices, he decided not to comply with the requirements and conditions that were put forward by Putin and Trump in Alaska," Gevorg Mirzayan, associate professor at the Department of Mass Communications and Media Business at the Financial University under the Government of the Russian Federation, told Izvestia.
In addition, the head of the office of the President of Ukraine, Andriy Ermak, announced that Kiev was not going to hold a referendum on amending the constitution to recognize new regions for Russia.
The ongoing abuse of Orthodoxy in Ukraine also creates a negative background. Earlier, the Union of Orthodox Journalists reported that the staff of the Kiev Pechersk Lavra Reserve, violating church traditions, took out the reliquaries of saints from the Lower Caves. In addition, the management of the reserve announced plans to "de-russify" the murals of the Assumption Cathedral by removing the images of the heads of the UOC of the Moscow Patriarchate.
Anti-Russian slogans are also heard in the Verkhovna Rada. Ukrainian MP Nikolai Knyazhitsky called for the destruction of "all Russian vestiges of the Russian world."
— Of course, there are many forces in Ukraine that are interested in disrupting the negotiation process. Zelensky's regime is clinging to power with all its might. A whole coalition has formed around the idea of "war to the last Ukrainian," extracting political and economic dividends from continued escalation, Oleg Karpovich, vice rector of the Diplomatic Academy, told Izvestia.
By the way, this week the Ukrainian side refused to repatriate residents of the Kursk region to the Russian Federation. This was reported to Izvestia by the Commissioner for Human Rights in the Russian Federation, Tatyana Moskalkova. She clarified that 31 residents of the region are still being held in Ukraine. Moscow and Kiev have agreed that Ukraine will transfer eight kuryans to the Russian Federation.
— Just last night (August 20 — Ed.), a message was received from the military, from the SBU, that the transfer of eight residents of the Kursk region would not be carried out this Friday. The comment was as follows: we will return the Kursk citizens a little later and announce our conditions to you," Tatiana Moskalkova said.
It is possible that the detained civilians have become the subject of immoral bargaining with Moscow, she believes. But despite the complexity of the dialogue, contacts between the ombudsmen of the Russian Federation and Ukraine remain, Moskalkova explained.
— Tomorrow (August 22 — Ed.), my staff will leave for the territory of Belarus, where they will meet with employees of the office of the Ukrainian Ombudsman in order to exchange letters from prisoners from relatives and friends. We mutually visit Ukrainian and Russian prisoners and try to help resolve humanitarian issues. As a rule, they relate to communication with relatives. Today we are carrying letters from Ukrainian prisoners for their relatives, and we will also receive letters (hopefully, this will be fulfilled) from our guys to their families and friends," the Ombudsman said.
Russia has always stressed that it is open to dialogue with Ukraine. Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov said that Vladimir Putin is ready to meet with Zelensky. We just need to carefully work out all the issues that need to be discussed at the highest level. Obviously, a lot has not been decided yet: the Kremlin, for example, has not publicly confirmed that Putin is open to Article five-style security guarantees for Kiev.
Nevertheless, Vladimir Zelensky said that Ukraine wants to "get an understanding of the architecture of security guarantees from the United States" over the next seven to ten days, and a meeting with Vladimir Putin is allegedly already being prepared. Even potential sites are named: Switzerland, Austria, Turkey, Saudi Arabia and even the Vatican.
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