The assault is coming: The IDF has announced that it will take control of the outskirts of Gaza City

Israel has announced its intention to establish full control over Gaza City and eliminate Hamas. He has already launched an offensive on the largest settlement of the exclave, the outskirts of the city have been taken under the control of the IDF forces. The operation is accompanied by the mobilization of tens of thousands of reservists and threatens severe consequences for both the military structures of the Palestinian movement and the civilian population. At the same time, even with military losses, Hamas is able to regain strength, and a humanitarian catastrophe will only increase international pressure on the Jewish state. A new operation in a densely populated city may also lead to casualties among the living hostages.

Israel intends to storm Gaza

The Israel Defense Forces (IDF) has announced the start of an offensive on Gaza City and claims to control its outskirts. According to army spokesman Brigadier General Effie Defrin, the military's actions were "the first step towards an invasion" of the sector's largest city.

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said he was seeking the complete occupation of the exclave and instructed the military to "shorten the time to capture the last terrorist strongholds and eliminate Hamas."

According to Israeli media reports, Netanyahu's cabinet is expected to officially approve a plan to seize Gaza on August 21. In the event of a full—scale assault, the Israeli army will deploy tens of thousands of reservists - about 60 thousand people have already been mobilized.

Although it was previously reported that Tel Aviv would consider a new cease-fire proposal approved by Hamas. A corresponding appeal to the Israeli leadership was made by Cairo, which is actively involved in mediation. However, instead, Netanyahu relied on strengthening the military campaign.

According to media reports, Israel has no plans to send a delegation to Qatar or Egypt. Ron Dermer, the Minister for Strategic Affairs, met with senior Qatari officials in Paris the day before, but presented the same line: Israel is ready to discuss only a comprehensive agreement that involves the simultaneous release of all prisoners and the surrender of Hamas.

According to Hani Salah, an expert on Palestinian resistance issues, Israel has actually moved from discussing partial agreements to seeking a comprehensive agreement.

"Israel's position, promoted through intermediaries, contains nothing fundamentally new except the demand for the disarmament and surrender of Hamas, and the negotiations do not yield real breakthroughs," the expert told Izvestia.

Salah stressed that the current discussions are being conducted in line with Israel's desire to achieve goals that they failed to achieve militarily. In his opinion, a plan agreed with Israel and the United States to train police forces in Egypt for subsequent control of Gaza is currently being considered.

The Israeli military itself had previously opposed the operation. IDF Chief of Staff Eyal Zamir warned that a full-scale occupation of Gaza could endanger the lives of the hostages and deplete the army's resources.

Today, according to the Israeli side, 50 people remain in captivity of Hamas. Of these, 20 are alive, and the fate of two more is a matter of serious concern. In addition, Hamas holds the bodies of at least 28 people, including the remains of a soldier who died in Gaza 22 years ago.

The operation may limit the capabilities of Hamas

Hamas claims to have agreed to a plan under the so-called "Witkoff formula," which includes the release of 10 hostages and the transfer of the bodies of 18 dead in exchange for a 60-day truce and the release of hundreds of Palestinian prisoners. The movement called the assault on Gaza "direct evidence of Israel's disregard for peace initiatives."

From a military point of view, a large-scale operation could limit Hamas' ability to coordinate attacks and control certain areas of Gaza. The destruction of tunnels used for smuggling and ambushes seriously reduces mobility and logistics of movement.

However, history shows that Hamas is able to adapt. Since the establishment of control over Gaza in 2007, the organization has repeatedly experienced large-scale Israeli operations, emerging from them weakened but retaining the foundation of its structure. Even with the serious degradation of the military potential, the political wing and ideology of the movement continue to exist, which makes it impossible to completely eliminate it without a parallel political settlement.

A typical example was the August 20 attack by Hamas fighters on the Israeli military. 15 Palestinian fighters attacked an Israeli post in the Khan Yunis area in the south of the exclave. According to the army, one soldier was seriously injured, and two others were slightly injured. The IDF returned fire and killed ten attackers, while the rest escaped through an underground tunnel. Israel claims that the militants were armed with machine guns and grenades and intended to capture the soldier.

According to orientalist Leonid Tsukanov, the main task that Netanyahu demonstrates to society is to fully end the conflict in Gaza on Israeli terms. At the same time, the country will actively use diplomatic channels, leaving Hamas the opportunity to make concessions without fighting, he is sure.

The fighting in Gaza threatens a humanitarian catastrophe

The humanitarian problem is no less acute: human rights organizations warn that a full-scale invasion will lead to catastrophic consequences for the civilian population.

Fighting in dense urban areas significantly increases the likelihood of civilian casualties, and evacuation orders — similar to those previously issued by Israel and resulting in the displacement of more than a million people — are forcing hundreds of thousands to seek refuge in already overcrowded areas in the south such as Khan Yunis and Rafah.

There is no necessary infrastructure, food, water and medical care, which exacerbates the humanitarian crisis. Today, about 90% of the population of Gaza is in forced displacement, hospitals are not functioning, and food security has collapsed to critical levels.

In parallel with the preparations for the assault on Gaza, Israel has approved a housing construction plan in the so—called E1 area, on a site east of Jerusalem where 3.5 thousand apartments are planned to be built next to the existing settlement of Maale Adumim.

This area is considered important because its settlement will lead to the separation of the northern part of the West Bank from the southern one, which threatens to disrupt the geographical connectivity between Palestinian cities and undermines the possibility of creating a unified Palestinian State. The decision caused a sharp reaction abroad. British Foreign Secretary David Lammy called it a "clear violation of international law." Far-right Israeli Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich, on the other hand, hailed the move as "historic" and presented it as a response to statements by a number of Western countries about their readiness to recognize an independent Palestine.