Deep into the contingents: will the "coalition of the willing" send troops to Ukraine

The radical wing in the West is promoting a plan to send a military contingent to Ukraine and is trying to involve the United States in this. However, it may take a long time to determine Europe's unified position, Dmitry Novikov, first deputy head of the State Duma's International Affairs committee, told Izvestia. When developing security guarantees, it is important that not only Kiev, but also its neighbors receive protection, Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov said. The most viable option is guarantees from permanent members of the UN Security Council, experts say. By threatening to send troops to Ukraine, European countries are most likely trying to prevent a diplomatic settlement that emerged after the summit of the presidents of Russia and the United States in Alaska.

What security guarantees can Kiev receive?

Ukraine's security guarantees cannot be considered without Russia's security issues, Dmitry Novikov, first deputy head of the State Duma's International Affairs committee, told Izvestia. According to him, it was the constant formation of a whole system of threats to the security of the Russian Federation that led to the conflict in Ukraine.

— It may take a long time to determine Europe's unified position. They are forced to look back at Washington's position, while differences between Trump and the leaders of key EU countries are constantly emerging," the deputy told Izvestia.

Collective guarantees for Ukraine from the West should be reliable and developed on the basis of the principle of indivisibility of security for its neighbors, Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov said.

— In that context, the Ukrainian proposal clearly meant that these guarantees would be equal. The security of all stakeholders, including Ukraine's neighbors, will be ensured on an equal, equal, and indivisible basis," the Minister stressed.

The Russian minister recalled that this issue was also discussed at the negotiations in Istanbul in 2022. Then Kiev proposed, and Moscow supported, the idea of security guarantees with the participation of members of the UN Security Council, that is, Russia, as well as China, the United States, France, and the United Kingdom, with the involvement of Germany, Turkey, and other interested countries.

—I am sure that in the West, first of all in the United States, they understand perfectly well that seriously discussing security issues without the Russian Federation is a utopia, it is a path to nowhere," said the head of the Russian Foreign Ministry. — As for reports that Britain, France, and Germany want to work out collective security guarantees, we are in favor of making these guarantees truly reliable.

The world is not over the years: how the Russian Federation, the USA and the EU propose to resolve the Ukrainian crisis

Moscow and Washington are closer to "necessary solutions," Vladimir Putin said after the summit in Alaska.

The discussion on this topic intensified after the meeting of US President Donald Trump with the leaders of the EU and NATO at the White House on August 18. The American leader then said that Ukraine would not be accepted into the North Atlantic Alliance, but the United States would provide it with "very good protection."

The national security advisers of the countries from the "coalition of the willing" will develop a plan for discussion over the next week, Euractiv writes, citing sources. The group of these experts, according to the Wall Street Journal, was headed by US Secretary of State Marco Rubio.

Earlier, Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni came up with the idea of providing Ukraine with guarantees in the spirit of the fifth article of the North Atlantic Treaty. This paragraph says that an attack on one member of the alliance is equal to an attack on all. It is envisaged that Kiev will thus formally not be a member of NATO and will not be able to receive troops from other countries of the bloc on its territory. According to Bloomberg, Ukraine's allies will be required to decide within 24 hours whether to provide military support in the event of an attack on the country.

When the strategy is ready, European leaders are going to call Donald Trump, and he should use their plan at a trilateral meeting with Russia and Ukraine. This summit may take place in Budapest, said U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent in an interview with Fox News.

Turkey should not be ruled out as a venue for the meeting: Vladimir Putin spoke on the phone with Recep Tayyip Erdogan on August 20 and noted his assistance. Earlier, three rounds of direct dialogue between Russia and Ukraine were held in Istanbul.

Western media also write about a possible meeting between the Russian president and Vladimir Zelensky. Vladimir Putin, in a telephone conversation with Donald Trump, suggested raising the level of heads of delegations at negotiations with Ukraine, Sergey Lavrov said. However, he noted that high-level meetings, such as joint negotiations between the Russian Federation and Ukraine on the settlement of the conflict, should be carefully prepared at the previous stages.

Moscow earlier in its memorandum on the settlement of the crisis introduced a clause on Ukraine's neutrality and a ban on any military activities of third states on its territory and the deployment of foreign armed formations, military bases and military infrastructure there.

Europe's proposals on security guarantees are certainly unacceptable to Russia and contradict its key requirements of demilitarization and neutral status for Ukraine, Oleg Karpovich, vice rector of the Diplomatic Academy, said in an interview with Izvestia.

"We will not allow the appearance of NATO forces, even under the guise of a certain "coalition of the willing," on the territory of a potentially hostile state for us," the expert believes.

Karpovich noted that the Foreign Minister's suggestion about guarantees from the permanent members of the UN Security Council is much more viable and realistic. However, the essence of the guarantees must be discussed with the members of the "five", primarily with the PRC, whose participation in this process is of fundamental importance.

Will the West send troops to Ukraine

Zelensky, as well as the leaders of the EU countries, link security guarantees with the deployment of Western troops on the territory of Ukraine. This idea was previously proposed by French President Emmanuel Macron, who then, together with British Prime Minister Keir Starmer, formed a "coalition of willing" from 31 countries. The new structure was needed due to the fact that it was not possible to get NATO to agree to send a contingent to Ukraine - Hungary and Slovakia are against it.

With the idea of bringing Western forces into Ukraine, Macron and Starmer went to a meeting with Trump at the White House. The American president ruled out sending US soldiers, but said Washington might be ready to provide air support to Ukraine.

— When it comes to security, they (European countries. — Ed.) we are ready to send people to the place. We are ready to help them, especially, probably, when it comes to air, because no one has what we have, they really don't have it. But I don't think that's going to be a problem," Trump said in an interview with Fox News.

The plan of European countries to send a military contingent to Ukraine is an element of bargaining, according to Tigran Meloyan, an analyst at the HSE Center for Mediterranean Studies. By making a demand that is obviously unacceptable to Russia, Europe is trying to get Moscow to make major concessions on Ukraine during the negotiation process. But there is a second version.

"Most likely, in this way, European countries are trying to undermine any diplomatic efforts and make a potential peace agreement impossible, given Moscow's commitment to preventing the presence of Western forces in Ukraine," the expert noted.

It is important that out of 31 countries, only 10 have so far expressed their desire to send forces. The backbone will be France and the United Kingdom, which in July proposed to deploy 50,000 soldiers in Ukraine. Then this figure dropped to 30,000, and now London is completely willing to provide only air and sea cover. The two countries are hampered by serious economic problems.

Position and strength: how will the situation at the front affect the negotiations on Ukraine

Russian troops have liberated significant territories, putting the Ukrainian Armed Forces in danger of losing strategically important cities.

Of the other states, the Baltic states have expressed the most serious intentions. But Greece and Poland, which have one of the largest European armies, refused to send their soldiers. At the same time, representatives of the NATO general staffs discussed the situation in Ukraine on August 20 with the participation of the head of the Joint Chiefs of Staff of the United States, Dan Kane, and the commander of NATO forces in Europe, Alexus Grinkevich.

Political statements may be at odds with operational capabilities. For example, the shortage of personnel in the German army makes the actual deployment of troops in Ukraine a rather controversial issue. The second important point is public opinion — in particular, whether the Europeans will support their governments in making decisions of this kind, which is fraught with an escalation of the conflict, says Meloyan.

If the "coalition of the willing" decides to send its military to Ukraine, it will immediately become clear: The West will begin to transfer additional air defense systems to the borders with Ukraine, strengthening its potential in covering manpower. Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov stressed that Russia sees no opportunity for compromise on the deployment of a foreign contingent in Ukraine. The appearance of the alliance's troops there would make NATO a direct participant in the conflict, Moscow warned.