Admission to Bolivia: the country wants to launch a lithium project from the Russian Federation until November

Bolivia plans to approve a joint lithium mining project with Russia by November this year, Izvestia found out. It is in the autumn that the country's president will change, and both candidates who made it to the second round of elections may complicate the implementation of the initiative. Against this background, the current authorities are forcing the approval of an agreement on the joint construction of a lithium carbonate plant in the Latin American republic. This venture will bring investments of almost $1 billion to Bolivia.

Bolivia accelerates lithium deal with Russia amid election

In September 2024, a subsidiary of Rosatom State Corporation and the Bolivian state-owned enterprise YLB (Yacimientos de Litio Bolivianos) signed an agreement to build a plant in the Uyuni salt marsh. It is expected that its capacity will be about 14 thousand tons of lithium carbonate per year. Lithium is essential in the production of electric vehicles, electronics, and renewable energy sources.

Construction was scheduled to begin in the second half of 2025, but the deadline has shifted due to legislative delays. To launch the project, it is necessary to obtain the approval of the relevant commission, the Chamber of Deputies, and then the Senate. Due to the large number of disagreements, one of the commission's meetings even ended in a scandal.

Nevertheless, the Bolivian Ministry of Energy wants to get the agreement approved before the end of the presidential term of the current leader Luis Arce. The inauguration of the new head of the country is scheduled for November 8.

It will turn out to be Li: The West is trying to disrupt the lithium project of the Russian Federation and Bolivia

Approval of the contract with Rosatom's subsidiary is delayed in the parliament of the Latin American country

In early August, the relevant commission approved the agreement. However, the further stages will be more difficult. But the authorities have developed an action plan aimed at minimizing the influence of the opposition when reviewing the document.

— We can schedule a meeting and warn about it at the last moment so that the opposition in the Chamber of Deputies does not have time to mobilize resources. The Chamber of Deputies is an independent body, but it is headed by a member of the ruling party, who helps us in this matter," Freddy Gustavo Velasquez Robles, Deputy head of the Ministry of Energy for Planning and Energy Development, told Izvestia.

According to him, at least 70 votes are required to approve the agreement in the Chamber of Deputies, but so far there are only 50 in the group of supporters. Apparently, not all representatives of the ruling Movement for Socialism party support the accelerated approval of the agreement at this stage (according to official data, the party has more than 70 seats). The Movement for Socialism also has a majority in the Senate.

— This week we will conduct the necessary analysis and consultations to speed up the approval of the agreements. But we also don't want protests in the country from those who disagree with this decision," said Freddy Gustavo Velasquez Robles.

The reason why the Bolivian Ministry decided to speed up the process is related to the results of the presidential elections that took place on August 17. Senator Rodrigo Paz Pereira and former Bolivian President Jorge Quiroga advanced to the second round. Both candidates may question cooperation with Russia in the lithium sector.

— They openly declare that they want to review existing agreements, which in fact may nullify the progress achieved and result in the conclusion of new agreements according to different rules. It will be equally difficult with both candidates, because they are more inclined to interact with Western countries," explained Freddy Gustavo Velasquez Robles.

Jorge Quiroga supports the idea of organizing production with high added value. Nevertheless, he has repeatedly called on the Bolivian parliament not to ratify the agreements with Russia, according to Alexey Chernyshev, head of the Center for Regional Studies and Cooperation with Latin America (ERCLA). Given the strategic importance of lithium for the Bolivian economy and the geopolitical component of the issue, Quiroga would prefer to take control of the contractor selection process if he wins, the expert is sure.

At the same time, Rodrigo Paz Pereira prioritizes the interests of the Bolivian regions with lithium reserves and will seek consensus with local public organizations, Chernyshev believes. Under Pace, the lithium negotiation process will take place with greater involvement of civil society than in the Arce government.

Russia's relations with Bolivia

The results of the first round of the Bolivian presidential election on August 17 marked the end of the 20-year era of the Movement for Socialism (MAS) party rule.

Amid the internal party conflict between President Luis Arce and ex-President Evo Morales, as well as general dissatisfaction with leftist policies in recent years, MAS candidate Eduardo del Castillo received just over 3% of the vote.

At the same time, some Bolivians claim that they ticked the ballot not for del Castillo, but for MAS, the candidate himself is completely unknown to them. Moreover, he was greeted with angry shouts and even name-calling at his polling station.

Del Castillo's bid for the presidency was announced in May, just three months before the vote. Around this time, the current President Luis Arce announced his decision not to run for a second term.

Thus, in the second round, which is scheduled for October 19, ex-leader Jorge Quiroga, who won 26.8% of the vote (he was in power from 2001 to 2002, when Hugo Banzer left office due to health problems) and the son of ex-president Jaime Paz Zamora Rodrigo Paz, who won 32.2% of the vote, will compete for the presidency.%.

— Jorge Quiroga is a right—wing liberal technocrat, he sees the United States as his reference point, and in relation to the Latin American region, President Javier Miley of Argentina, both in economics and politics, and in foreign relations, — Alexey Chernyshev specified.

His main rival, Rodrigo Paz, was gaining about 4% in the polls just a month before the election. At that time, entrepreneur Samuel Doria Medina was predicted to take the first place in the elections (as a result, he received 19.9%). Paz gained popularity in the last weeks of the election campaign largely due to its alliance with former police captain Edman Lara. Some supporters see him as a brave leader who is ready to stand up to corruption among the security forces.

— Rodrigo Paz is a centrist and a much more moderate candidate who relies on a balanced foreign policy. His government will not cut off its established external contacts with Russia, China, and the BRICS, but will be more open to traditional foreign relations, including with the United States and the EU, than the outgoing leftists. The choice of partners will be determined based on balanced pragmatism, not ideology," the expert noted.

But from Pace, according to Chernyshev, one should not expect "reckless friendship for ideological reasons, as was the case with Evo Morales and Luis Arce."

The current authorities expect that the new management will not review the agreements that have already been approved, which is why they are in a hurry to approve the contract with the Russian company. However, a cancellation scenario cannot be completely ruled out. Although the project promises benefits to Bolivia: it involves investments of more than $ 970 million, which will fall into the budget of the Latin American state. In addition, according to Alexey Likhachev, the head of Rosatom, chemical compounds will not be used in the mining process, and water flows will return back to the bowels. This is important both for the environment and for local residents concerned about the environmental impact of lithium deposits.

For Russia, the contract with Bolivia is also of great importance. Our country ranks fifth in the world in terms of lithium reserves, and its production in Russia is almost non-existent. For a long time, it was more reasonable to import metal. But the situation is changing. Since 2023, the Russian Federation has been working on launching its own production: 45 thousand tons of lithium carbonate and hydroxide per year are planned to be extracted in the Murmansk Region. For this purpose, the Kolmozerskoye deposit, the largest in the country, will be used. It contains 24.2% of all balance lithium reserves in Russia. Production is scheduled to start in 2031.