The Triple Game: what will the peace agreement between Yerevan and Baku change?

Armenia and Azerbaijan have signed a joint declaration with the United States on a peaceful settlement between Yerevan and Baku. This was stated by the head of the White House, Donald Trump, following an official ceremony attended by the leaders of the two countries. This historic event can be a step towards lasting peace for many years to come, experts interviewed by Izvestia said. At the same time, a final settlement should be expected only after Yerevan, at the constitutional level, renounces its claims to Nagorno-Karabakh. Another signed agreement involves the lease by the United States of the Zangezur corridor on the border with Iran. Such a decision threatens to aggravate Washington's relations with Tehran and hinder the development of the North-South project, in which Russia participates. The real motivations of the United States and the role of the Russian Federation in the Armenian-Azerbaijani settlement are described in the Izvestia article.

Will the agreement between Yerevan and Baku lead to lasting peace

Yerevan and Baku have agreed to resume diplomatic relations and indefinitely end the military confrontation. At the same time, Trump said that Armenia and Azerbaijan can count on his intervention if one of the parties violates the peace agreement. The head of the White House also announced that the United States has agreed with Armenia and Azerbaijan to expand cooperation in the fields of energy, trade and artificial intelligence. Washington is lifting restrictions on its military cooperation with Baku.

Another agreement grants the United States exclusive rights to develop the Zangezur Corridor in the South Caucasus. According to Trump, it can be extended for 99 years. The corridor will receive the pretentious name "Trump's Way for International Peace and Prosperity" (TRIPP) and will function according to Armenian laws. Washington will sublet this land to a private company that will build infrastructure there. The Zangezur transport corridor, passing through the south of Armenia, will connect the territories of Azerbaijan and its exclave, the Nakhichevan Autonomous Republic.

The official ceremony was held on August 8 in Washington with the participation of Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev and Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan. Trump, in his characteristic manner, called it a "historic peace summit." However, this document is rather a prologue to a real agreement.

Even before the meeting, the White House announced that the leaders of Azerbaijan, Armenia and the United States would adopt a joint declaration on the peaceful settlement between Baku and Yerevan and the creation of a transport corridor between the two Transcaucasian republics. And the State Department emphasized that the parties could sign an agreement that would only be the beginning of a peace treaty. Nevertheless, it can really be a historic event if it succeeds in establishing lasting peace between the two countries, political analyst Stanislav Tarasov told Izvestia.

Right now, the parties could hardly conclude a final major peace agreement in Washington. At a minimum, Yerevan will have to change the country's constitution for this, political analyst Andrei Suzdaltsev said in a conversation with Izvestia. Earlier, Ilham Aliyev stated that a peace treaty is impossible between the two countries as long as there remains a clause in the basic law of Armenia suggesting unification with Nagorno-Karabakh.

— To change the constitution, it is necessary, of course, to hold a referendum. And next year, parliamentary elections will be held in Armenia. The main political intrigue is whether Trump will be able to convince Pashinyan to hold a referendum before the elections," says Suzdaltsev.

In March, the Armenian Prime Minister said that a referendum on the adoption of a new constitution, which will not mention unification with Nagorno-Karabakh, is planned to be held only in 2027. Thus, after signing the "preliminary" documents in Washington, Trump will have to persuade Pashinyan to resolve the issue of changing the main document of the republic as soon as possible.

In general, as the events of March 2025 showed, when Baku and Yerevan were able to independently agree on the final version of the treaty, both sides are ready to establish lasting peace. In principle, all parties involved in the signing can benefit. For Aliyev, this will mean victory, because for the Azerbaijani people, he won this war, explains Suzdaltsev. Pashinyan, on the other hand, intends to finally close the topic of confrontation with Baku in order to gain more support and investment from the West.

Earlier, the Armenian Prime Minister took a number of steps towards rapprochement with his representatives, moving away from Russia. So, in June 2024, he announced Armenia's withdrawal from the Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO), without specifying the time frame. So far, Yerevan simply does not participate in the organization's events. In the same year, the Armenian Defense Ministry announced the signing of a military cooperation program with France.

Trump, in turn, wants to score political points by continuing to play the role of peacemaker and mediator, Egor Toropov, an American researcher at the National Research University Higher School of Economics, PhD, told Izvestia.

— The trilateral meeting of the leaders of the United States, Azerbaijan and Armenia is an optical victory for Donald Trump in the eyes of Americans. For him, the domestic political discourse determines his foreign policy steps," the expert recalled.

The West aims to shift the reconciliation process between Armenia and Azerbaijan to its own plane, which may lead to an imbalance of the security system in the region, Russian Foreign Ministry spokeswoman Maria Zakharova said in July. "The Westerners aim to put the reconciliation process between Baku and Yerevan on their own tracks. We also know where these rails usually lead. This was apparently done once again to score political points, to announce new successes and their own efforts," Zakharova added.

Will the United States strengthen its influence in the South Caucasus

In addition to the peace agreement between Yerevan and Baku, two more documents were scheduled to be signed at the White House, Reuters writes. First, it is the agreement on the liquidation of the OSCE Minsk Group, which was established in 1992 to promote a peaceful settlement of the conflict over Nagorno-Karabakh. In addition to other countries, Russia was among its co-chairs. Earlier, it was Moscow that played a key role in the preparation of the peace agreement. The "main directions of movement" to it were outlined in the trilateral agreements of the leaders of the Russian Federation, Azerbaijan and Armenia in 2020 and 2022, Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Mikhail Galuzin told Izvestia. Russia is currently preoccupied with the conflict in Ukraine, which has affected its role as a mediator between the two states, Suzdaltsev says.

— Russia behaves cautiously, does not provoke anyone. But this [signing agreements with the United States] will have no effect on the economic relations of the Russian Federation with Armenia and Azerbaijan," the expert emphasizes.

As for the US lease of the Zangezur corridor, the US operational control over this section near the border with Iran carries geopolitical and economic risks for Tehran and Moscow, Tigran Meloyan, an analyst at the HSE Center for Mediterranean Studies, told Izvestia. The Iranian authorities are particularly concerned about Washington's attack, says Leonid Tsukanov, a political scientist and orientalist.

— Tehran sees the process as an attempt by Washington to create a potential zone of tension near the Iranian borders, as well as one of the indirect signs of preparations for a new wave of escalation. On the other hand, Tehran has made great efforts to establish relations with both Baku and Yerevan, and therefore expects that both capitals will make efforts to curb American ambitions," he told Izvestia.

In addition, the presence of Americans in the South Caucasus threatens the ambitious North-South transport corridor, designed to connect Russia with India through Iran, Tigran Meloyan believes. Interestingly, in 2020-2021, Moscow also proposed to provide a mechanism for the movement of goods across the territory of Armenia from Azerbaijan to Nakhichevan, but this idea was not supported.

— The Zangezur corridor with Russia's participation could become a vital economic route for the South Caucasus, contributing to the development of trade, transit and regional integration. However, with the growing involvement of the United States, this corridor risks becoming a destabilizing factor," the expert stressed.

After the United States leases the Zangezur corridor, private military companies will probably immediately enter this territory. Thus, the American soldiers will really be at the very borders with Iran, says Andrei Suzdaltsev. Washington's increased military presence in the South Caucasus is also evidenced by the fact that joint maneuvers with the United States will be held in Armenia from August 12 to 20.

The Kremlin, commenting on previous similar military exercises, stated that they "do not contribute to the stabilization of the situation," and in January 2025, Russian Presidential spokesman Dmitry Peskov stressed that the United States had never played a "stabilizing role" in the South Caucasus. Moscow and Yerevan do not plan to hold joint military exercises this year yet, the republic's Defense Minister Suren Papikyan said in January. However, he emphasized that Yerevan is interested in maintaining ties with Moscow and has not canceled any document on bilateral cooperation.