To put barrels: gasoline prices on the stock exchange exceeded the historical mark
Exchange prices for gasoline have reached historic highs, despite the government's one-month ban on fuel exports starting on August 1. The cost of Ai-95 exceeded 80 thousand rubles per ton. Experts attribute the current situation to damage to two large refineries, which, according to preliminary estimates, will take at least a month to repair. Meanwhile, market participants note the negative margin of the retail segment and predict further price increases. The Ministry of Energy assured that the shortfall in gasoline production due to unplanned repairs will be compensated in the coming days. At the same time, the FAS is considering the possibility of increasing the minimum volume of gasoline sales on the stock exchange to 17%.
The cost of gasoline
Despite the complete ban on gasoline exports, which began to take effect on August 1, stock prices for fuel updated historical highs on a daily basis. On August 8, the cost of the Ai-92 increased by 0.52% to 68,679 rubles per ton, diesel fell by 0.40% to 58,439 rubles, and the Ai-95 came close to 81,000 rubles per ton. This type of fuel rose in price by 1.64%, to 80,875, adding 1.3 thousand rubles at once. During the month, its price increased by 13.2%.
The previous record, which exceeded 76 thousand rubles, was recorded in September 2023. Then several factors became the reasons at once: the workload of the railway, the reduction of payments for the damper due to budget deficits and the increase in the repair time of the refinery due to the lack of components. Then the solution to the problem was the return of the damper and the introduction of an export ban.
In the current situation, the export ban has not yet brought the expected result. According to Tamara Safonova, General Director of the Independent Analytical Agency for the Oil and Gas Sector (NAANS-MEDIA LLC), gasoline is physically no longer on the market. In addition, the indicative balance of the EAEU also provides for a quota for the export of motor fuel, which is not exempt from restrictions.
— The main part of foreign consulting projects in the field of oil refining development was aimed at promoting the production of diesel fuel. This decision was based on the key conclusion of analysts about the more economical consumption of diesel compared to gasoline. As a result, we see a significant gap between the production of diesel fuel and gasoline in Russia — almost twice. Insufficient gasoline production in the domestic market, in turn, is directly reflected in the price situation," the Izvestia interlocutor notes.
Izvestia's interlocutors also attributed the price increase to the decommissioning of installations at two large refineries — Ryazansky and Novokuibyshevsky (owned by Rosneft), with a total capacity exceeding 25 million tons per year. A market source said that the repair of damaged installations was discussed at a meeting of the headquarters of the Ministry of Energy and, according to his estimates, could take at least a month.
The Ministry of Energy noted in an official statement that "the domestic market for gasoline of all brands is fully supplied."
"In order to stabilize the price situation on the stock exchange, the Ministry of Energy calls on all market participants to return to the regime of regularity and uniformity of the sale and purchase of gasoline on all available exchange bases. The Ministry will continue to monitor the situation on the domestic market of petroleum products on a daily basis," the report says.
Gasoline reserves
At the same time, according to the Ministry of Energy, gasoline production and shipments to the domestic market have consistently exceeded last year's figures since the beginning of the year, and the necessary level of reserves has been formed.
Recall that in June, the department reported that gasoline inventories in Russia reach 1.8 million tons, which is 2% higher than at the beginning of 2024, while diesel fuel reserves remain at the level of last year and amount to 3.3 million tons.
On August 8, the Ministry of Energy did not name the level of reserves, nor did it provide information on whether these reserves would be used to stabilize the market.
— Fuel delivery by all modes of transport is provided in priority mode, there are no problems with the speed of shipment and delivery. The shortfall in gasoline production due to unplanned repairs will be compensated in the coming days. Restoration work is being carried out at an accelerated pace, backup primary and secondary processing units are being introduced, the volume of primary oil refining and fuel production at a number of refineries is increasing, the ministry said.
They also noted that "in the conditions of the ban on gasoline exports, the entire additional volume of fuel supply will be directed to the domestic market through all sales channels — stock exchange sales and small wholesale sales to the market are a priority."
Meanwhile, the Federal Antimonopoly Service told Izvestia that they were considering raising the minimum volume of gasoline sales on the stock exchange from 15% to 17%.
"This measure will contribute to ensuring pricing transparency and minimizing the risks of unjustified price increases," the press service noted.
Dmitry Gusev, Deputy Chairman of the Supervisory Board of the Reliable Partner Association, believes that in this way the FAS is trying to equalize the positions of oil companies, since a decrease in sales volumes on the stock exchange by one of the largest players leads to higher prices.
According to Tamara Safonova, CEO of NAANS-MEDIA, an increase in fuel supply on the stock exchange is a positive factor for price dynamics, in addition, a reduction in tourist flows may have an impact on lower prices in the fall.
Can fuel still rise in price
According to Rosstat, from the beginning of 2025 to August 4, the cost of gasoline at gas stations increased by 4.9%, which is higher than inflation over the same period (4.37%). At the same time, regulators constantly remind oil companies that the prices of gasoline and diesel fuel in small wholesale and retail should not rise above inflation.
A market source told Izvestia that price increases are noticeable at independent gas stations, while vertically integrated companies are trying to contain them, despite negative margins. At the same time, according to him, despite the increase in exchange and wholesale prices, the FAS suggests that market participants reduce them. This proposal is due to the fact that deflation has been observed in Russia for the third week in a row.
The FAS told Izvestia that the service analyzes the prices of about 12 thousand gas stations, which include both gas stations of vertically integrated companies and independent ones. In case of detection of violations of the antimonopoly legislation, the agency takes response measures. They also announced the initiation of proceedings against Gazprom GNP Sales LLC for reducing gasoline sales on the stock exchange. In addition, the territorial authorities of the department are considering four antimonopoly cases for unjustified price increases at gas stations.
According to Ekaterina Kosareva, Managing partner of VMT Consult, major changes in the fuel market should not be expected in the coming month. She believes that price increases are inevitable both on the stock exchange and in retail, especially at independent gas stations, which occupy almost two thirds of the market.
"I don't think we will see significant changes in the price tags at the gas station. But business will have a difficult time in the near future, especially if deflation in Russia continues," the expert concluded.
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