"The EU is caught between the effect of anti-Russian sanctions and US tariffs"
European sanctions have had a positive effect on the Russian economy, forcing entrepreneurs to diversify trade ties and unleash their creative potential, former Austrian Foreign Minister and head of the St. Petersburg State University's G.O.R.K.L. Center Karin Kneissl told Izvestia. Meanwhile, Europe, according to the diplomat, has not only lost a profitable market, but also faced the need to build more complex business chains. About the Europeans' view of the Russian Federation, new restrictions from Brussels and the possible end of the Russian-Ukrainian conflict — in an exclusive interview with Karin Kneissl "Izvestia".
"Russia is a country that cannot be defeated militarily"
— You are an experienced diplomat and an expert in the field of international relations. At the same time, you have been studying Russia over the past few years. In your opinion, what mistakes do European politicians make when interacting with the Russian Federation?
— I would not call myself an expert in Russian history. I studied Arabic and Hebrew, and lived in East Asia for a long time. Two years ago, Russia was an unknown land for me. It was only after I arrived here that I began to understand and speak the language better. I've read a lot of biographies and history textbooks. I am amazed at how many academics and experts on cooperation have stopped being interested in relations with Russia.
I am trying to reproach European politicians for being very fond of portraying Russia as a constant threat. And it didn't start in 2022 or during the Cold War. I'm not a historian, but I think it goes back to much more distant times. This may be due to the confrontation between the Catholic and Orthodox Churches. Of course, this happened many years ago, but it remains in the mind.
At the same time, the perception of the Russian Federation differs in different European countries — for example, in Portugal, people do not think about Russia. Their interests are somewhere in Latin America or Africa, in Spain. But in Eastern Europe, in countries such as Germany, the Baltic republics, and Poland, everything is different, because they have a common history with Russia. They are in the old paradigm where Russia is a threat. It's not new at all, but it's back in 2022. And this applies not only to business, which is under threat, and not only to military confrontation, but also to the abolition of Russian culture and academic cooperation. In my opinion, this has never happened before in other crisis situations.
But Russia is a big and rich country that cannot be defeated militarily. I admire Russians and their kindness, friendliness, even when you speak with a German accent, and their curiosity, which is not the case with many Europeans.
I think Russian diplomacy has made the right decision by focusing on cooperation with the countries of the South and the East. Unfortunately, Europe and the EU are not partners at the moment.
"The EPA crisis in the EU may end dramatically"
— It is obvious that the EU plans to introduce new packages of anti-Russian sanctions. The European Parliament claims that this can happen every three to four months. What is the probability that Brussels will be able to maintain such a pace of restrictive measures?
— The 18th package of EU sanctions was approved last week after several unsuccessful attempts to adopt it, including due to the fact that the Slovak government disagreed with it. We notice that these sanctions do not bypass anyone.
The Russian Federation had to diversify its trading partners, and this began to happen in 2014. Russia, which imported vegetables in exchange for grain, became an agrarian force. With all the sanctions imposed in 2022, it was forced to diversify its IT technologies. Russian business and society have been able to handle this well.
Meanwhile, the European Union has lost a huge market. For example, Mercedes had enough customers in Russia. But Mercedes destroyed itself, it wasn't Russia that kicked them out, and now they are replaced by other, better companies.
As for energy and other natural resources, Europe has cut itself off from direct business links. In other words, they are still buying Russian gas from Turkey or Azerbaijan, but direct supplies are no longer taking place.
They have put themselves in an unpleasant situation — the EU is now caught between the effect of anti-Russian sanctions and US tariffs. 27 European economies are experiencing difficulties for a variety of reasons — expensive energy, lack of labor, migration, and on top of that, US tariffs. All this chaos in the EU could end dramatically.
— Hungarian Foreign Minister Peter Szijjarto said that Budapest is discussing with Moscow and Belgrade the possibility of building an oil pipeline. In your opinion, what are the chances for the successful implementation of this project and could Austria join it?
— I don't really know what decision Austria can make, because I left it five years ago. Based on what I read, I come to the conclusion that Hungary looks at energy issues from a technical point of view, and Austria from an ideological point of view. And this is nonsense. After all, you need to provide your companies and your citizens with affordable energy. And it's not that it should be cheap, but people should be able to pay for it.
The construction of the pipeline takes at least five years, and you never know what will happen in the future, who will be responsible for the transit of fuel. In addition, oil pipelines always require large investments. Hungary and Slovakia are currently considering all possible options to provide their populations with affordable energy.
"I hear requests from Russian companies not to lift sanctions"
— The European Commission believes that a complete ban on the purchase of Russian gas, which is due to come into force in 2027, should remain in force after the end of the conflict in Ukraine...
— I would like to start by saying that I hear requests from Russian companies not to lift sanctions, because, according to them, the restrictions have pushed them to be more creative. For example, I now live in Kasimov, where many confectionery products are produced. And I often hear that sanctions have helped their manufacturers expand their presence in the Russian market, because many foreign companies have left the country. I've seen this trend in the pharmaceutical market as well. I also saw how German software was successfully replaced with similar software from other countries. The restrictions had a positive effect on the Russian economy.
Although the sanctions themselves are actually a violation of the laws. European businessmen do not always understand how to follow these restrictions — they need to consult with lawyers on this issue on a daily basis. This is no longer a business, but a passage through the jungle of sanctions. I think that in the current situation, the EU is experiencing more difficulties than the Russian Federation.
— Recently, the United States announced that now the EU must pay for American weapons for Ukraine. Will this mechanism be working, in your opinion?
— This is a big problem because it leads to legal difficulties. The European Commission has certain supranational powers, for example, to discuss international trade, but it cannot prescribe to national authorities where to buy energy or where to buy weapons — these are sovereign decisions.
— Recently, US President Donald Trump reduced the deadline for resolving the Russian-Ukrainian conflict to 10-12 days. Although he previously called for resolving the conflict in 50 days, otherwise Washington intends to increase pressure on Moscow. How can this threat affect the negotiation process?
— I don't think this will speed up the conflict resolution process. In 2014, I read Mikhail Bulgakov's The White Guard. I love Bulgakov very much, but this book was difficult to understand. What I realized is that nothing has changed since 1919. There are quite deep roots of this conflict, it cannot be solved with a snap of the fingers. Trump, of course, wants to sweep him off his desk and deal with other issues. Maybe he wants to be Russia's best friend in order to build a business here, but in the current circumstances, this issue is not so easy to resolve.
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