The epicenter of the threat: how the European Union is trying to distance China from Russia

The European Union's attempts to distance China from Russia are doomed to failure, despite restrictions against the republic's banks in the 18th package of anti-Russian sanctions, experts interviewed by Izvestia believe. The EU–China summit on July 24 ended with routine statements and old threats. Xi Jinping emphasizes that there are no obstacles to the development of bilateral relations. And Ursula von der Leyen is threatening measures, demanding that Beijing remove barriers to overcome the trade imbalance. Brussels is also concerned about its almost complete dependence on China for rare earth metals. Attempts to reduce it have brought the EU to a standstill: against the background of the trade war with the United States, European manufacturers want to expand their presence in the Chinese market again. The true reason for the summit and the prospects for a rapprochement between the EU and China can be found in the Izvestia article.

How did the EU–China summit end?

A high—profile event, at least according to the sign, took place in Beijing - the 25th anniversary EU–China summit, which marks the 50th anniversary of the establishment of relations between the European Union and China. The heads of the European Council and the European Commission, Antonio Costa and Ursula von der Leyen, met with Chinese President Xi Jinping and Premier of the State Council Li Qiang. Initially, the talks were scheduled for two days, but their duration was shortened amid economic uncertainty due to threats of tariffs from the United States and, in general, the unstable political situation due to the same conflicts in the Middle East and Ukraine.

Following the summit, Xi stressed that China is a peaceful state that stands for "harmony, tolerance, cooperation and mutually beneficial development," and added that China and Europe "really differ," but this should not hinder bilateral relations.

At the same time, there are enough obstacles, disagreements and difficulties in EU-China relations. The parties, of course, discussed cooperation in the field of climate and global conflicts, but the main issue of the meeting was the impressive trade imbalance. According to Eurostat data for 2024, the EU exported about €213 billion worth of goods to China, and imported about €518 billion from it. As a result, the trade deficit of the Union with the republic amounted to approximately €305 billion.

Following the summit, von der Leyen demanded the removal of trade barriers, threatening "retaliatory measures," which, however, has been happening over the past year. In particular, the EU expects China to reduce investment in manufacturing and more actively support domestic consumption so that more European goods enter the Chinese market. The main headache remained electric cars, which flooded into the EU, overshadowing the products of European automakers.

In addition, the EU is extremely concerned about Chinese restrictions on the export of rare earth metals. China continues to control 95% of global production and exports of key rare earth elements and magnets, resulting in a huge shortage of rare earth metals needed for European industry and electronics, as well as energy and military industries.

"Restrictions on the export of rare earth metals have called into question the further development of the European automotive industry, the production of semiconductors, the military and space industries," Pavel Maryshev, an expert in the oil and gas industry, sustainable development and energy, told Izvestia. — Each batch of rare earth metals sent for export goes through the licensing process at the Ministry of Commerce of China. Thus, Beijing uses the speed and frequency of issuing licenses as an instrument of pressure on the EU.

The main points of the double—edged economic attacks by Beijing and Brussels have already been discussed during the recent European tour of Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi, but no agreement has been reached.

— The story of mutual economic harassment between China and the European Union is a well—established trend that has become a reflection of the new reality. The global economy of recent years has been defined by mutual distrust. It is not worth counting on a drastic change in Beijing's foreign economic policy in a short period of time," the expert said.

Prospects for rapprochement between the European Union and China

At the same time, China and the EU can join forces to counter unilateral US tariffs that threaten negative consequences for both economies. Nevertheless, it is still possible to reach an agreement with Washington, although, of course, on not the most favorable terms. Donald Trump has announced that he is in the final stages of negotiations with China on a trade agreement. The US has also proposed an EU deal providing for lower duties in exchange for opening the European market to American companies. Previously, similar agreements were concluded with the Philippines and Indonesia.

— China and the EU could be close partners, especially considering that both are under pressure from the United States regarding tariffs. However, some politicians in Europe are short—sighted and make comments about the Taiwan issue and human rights issues in order to win over certain segments of the electorate," Tsui Heng, an employee of the SCO Center for International Legal Training and Cooperation at Shanghai University of Political Science and Law, told Izvestia. — China is a pragmatist, unlike some political forces in Europe. There will be no obstacles between China and Europe if it does not put forward any preconditions and just focuses on doing business.

US tariffs can really become a factor in the rapprochement between the EU and China, says Yulia Melnikova, head of the Asia–Eurasia program area of the INF Treaty. In recent years, the European Union has been diligently striving to reduce dependence on China, but now, facing the threat of US tariffs, it has found itself at a disadvantage.

"German manufacturers, primarily car manufacturers, as well as chemical concerns, are already interested in whether it is possible to somehow win back and, despite all restrictions, expand their share in the Chinese market," the expert told Izvestia. — Here, American tariffs can become a rallying factor. It's one thing to bend the anti—Chinese line, which is not interesting to all European countries anyway — Germany had to be strongly persuaded, but it's another thing to continue to pursue this line without the support factor from the United States — it will be much more difficult.

Will the EU be able to influence China in relation to Russia

Against the background of the summit, EU leaders called on Chinese President Xi Jinping to put pressure on Russia to resolve the conflict in Ukraine, Politico writes. The European Commission has already increased pressure on Beijing by including Chinese banks in the 18th package of sanctions against Russia for facilitating circumvention of trade restrictions. Beijing said that the restrictions were imposed on far-fetched charges, and promised to take the necessary measures to protect its rights and sovereignty.

At the same time, the European Union is unlikely to be able to drive a wedge into relations between Russia and China, experts believe.

"The EU simply does not have the ability to do this, and even the United States, which has long sought to split Sino—Russian relations, has not succeeded," concluded Cui Heng from Shanghai University of Political Science and Law.

Russian-Chinese relations have their own stable dynamics, so even the development of contacts with Europe will not harm them in any way. And sanctions against Chinese banks do not strategically threaten Russian-Chinese relations. Moreover, Vladimir Putin's visit to China will take place in September. According to Yulia Melnikova, there is much more interesting to expect here than at the end of the EU–China summit.