In Natural resource: Russia assesses risks for lithium project in Bolivia
Russia is assessing the risks for the largest lithium mining project against the background of political instability in Bolivia, Alexander Shchetinin, head of the Latin American department of the Russian Foreign Ministry, told Izvestia. The country's parliament cannot agree on the approval of the contract between the state-owned company YLB and Rosatom's subsidiary Uranium One Group. One of the last meetings ended in an altercation. Meanwhile, there is just over a month left before the presidential elections, in which representatives of the ruling party have virtually no chance of winning. How this may affect the Russian-Bolivian project is described in the Izvestia article.
Conflict in the Bolivian Parliament
One of the last meetings of the Bolivian deputies, at which the future of a joint lithium mining project with Russia was discussed, ended in a scandal. It even came to the use of physical force. According to the Reuters news agency, Energy Minister Alejandro Gallardo was attacked: water was thrown at him and garbage was thrown when he tried to explain the benefits of the new agreements. Some opposition-minded politicians came to a meeting of the economic commission of the Chamber of Deputies with flags of the Potosi department, where one of the lithium salt marshes is located. They had posters with them that read "Lithium is not for sale," "Do not touch lithium," and "Respect Potosi."
The representative of the Civil Society party, Lissa Claros (during the fierce controversy, she forcefully pulled on the table where her opponents were sitting) argued that the joint project of the subsidiary of the state corporation Rosatom, Uranium One Group, and the Bolivian state company YLB (Yacimientos de Litio Bolivianos) would necessarily harm the local population, in particular including environmental issues. She also insisted that the residents of the department were against the project and that it should be discussed in the region.
The agreement on the construction of a lithium carbonate plant in Bolivia was signed by Uranium One Group and YLB on September 11, 2024. According to the plan, the company should produce about 14 thousand tons of lithium carbonate per year in the Uyuni salt marsh. The project involves investments of more than $ 970 million, which will fall into the budget of the Latin American state.
It was reported that lithium is planned to be extracted from brines using the Russian "environmentally lean" sorption extraction technology. This will make it possible to obtain more than 90% of lithium from the salt marsh, said Alexey Likhachev, head of Rosatom. According to him, no chemical compounds are used in the mining process, besides, the water flows are returned back to the subsoil. And this is important both for the environment and for local residents concerned about the impact of lithium deposits on the environment.
Rosatom previously stated that the project would be launched in the second half of 2025, however, for this to happen, the contract between the parties must be approved by the Legislative Assembly of Bolivia, and it was at this stage that difficulties arose. Izvestia also sent a request to the state corporation.
— Taking into account how the situation in the country will develop, we will certainly assess the situation, the risks, and everything related, among other things, to the development of our bilateral projects. And we certainly expect that no matter how the political situation develops, our bilateral cooperation, which confidently meets our mutual interests, will continue to develop. Of course, the most important thing now is for the Bolivians to find the wisdom — popular and political — to stabilize their internal political situation in the interests of the country," Alexander Shchetinin, director of the Latin American Department of the Foreign Ministry, told Izvestia.
He also noted that the main task for Bolivians is for the country to develop peacefully and steadily, and for various political forces to find a common language.
What will happen to the lithium project after the elections in Bolivia
The fate of this lithium project will also depend on the outcome of the Bolivian presidential election, which is just over a month away. The first round will take place on August 17th. In early June, protests by supporters of Evo Morales swept the country, the protesters did not agree with the ban on his nomination as a candidate. The ex-leader was rejected due to the fact that he held the presidency for three consecutive terms, which is contrary to the laws of the country. Similar rallies were also held in January, September and October 2024.
The current leader Luis Arce will not run, he announced his decision a few days before the end of candidate registration. Given the impressive number of internal problems in the country — the economic crisis, fuel shortages, currency shortages, inflation, and a significant rise in the price of basic consumer goods, voters are unlikely to vote for the "leftists" who are now in power. Those, in turn, traditionally advocate maintaining friendly relations with Russia. Arce met with Vladimir Putin at the BRICS summit in Kazan in October 2024, and with Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov at a similar event in Rio de Janeiro in July 2025.
According to one of the latest Ipsos Ciesmori polls, the candidate of Luis Arce's Movement for Socialism (MAS) party, Eduardo del Castillo Del Carpio, is gaining only 1.4% of the potential votes. The leading positions in the survey are held by 67-year-old entrepreneur Samuel Doria Medina (19.6%) and former President Jorge Quiroga (16.6%). They are likely to fight for the presidency in the second round of elections.
It is unlikely that they will adhere to a pro-Russian course in their foreign policy. For example, Medina criticized Russia's participation in the development of lithium deposits, saying that agreements should be concluded with "the best companies" and not with Rosatom. Quirogi is now more restrained in his statements. He claims that his economic plan will aim to make Bolivia the world's leading exporter of lithium. To do this, he intends to conclude agreements with neighboring countries and trade the mineral at a market price. At the same time, he previously opposed the expansion of the influence of the Russian Federation and China on Latin American states.
— The candidate from the right-wing party is highly likely to win the election, and there is indeed a certain threat to the Russian-Bolivian project. However, the issue of relations with the Russian Federation is not the main one on the agenda of these candidates. They primarily focus on solving Bolivia's domestic political and economic problems. The issue of foreign policy is at best the second most important for them," says Viktor Kheifets, professor at the Faculty of International Relations at St. Petersburg State University.
Why cooperation with Bolivia is important for Russia
Bolivia, along with Argentina and Chile, is among the countries with the largest lithium reserves. The Latin American country's resources are estimated at about a staggering 21 million tons. Under the government of Evo Morales, the country nationalized the natural resource. Thus, the monopoly on lithium mining is held by the state-owned company YLB.
In previous years, Bolivia has already exported lithium to Russia, and at one point Moscow was even one of its main buyers. In 2022, the republic sold about 34 thousand tons of lithium carbonate and calcium chloride to eight countries in Latin America, Europe and Asia.
Currently, cooperation with Bolivia in lithium mining is important for Russia in terms of the development of renewable energy. It is necessary for the production of storage devices, which are used in solar panels and wind turbines. Lithium is also needed for the production of batteries, which are also used in electric vehicles, mobile phones and laptops.
Despite the fact that Russia ranks fifth in the world in terms of metal reserves, it is still almost not produced in our country. For a long time, it has been more profitable to purchase lithium abroad than to invest in our own production. Russia imports about 60% of lithium-ion batteries from China, the largest manufacturer of such batteries. According to the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology of the People's Republic of China, in 2023, their output exceeded 940 gigawatt-hours, which in monetary terms amounts to about $197 billion in profit for Beijing. Nevertheless, Vladimir Putin has repeatedly stressed that Russia needs to independently search for and extract high-tech raw materials: titanium, lithium, niobium, and rare earth metals. These projects are already being worked out.
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