Put on deterrence: Russia will respond to the deployment of NATO forces in Northern Europe

Russia will respond to the strengthening of the NATO presence in the Baltic. The alliance countries are militarizing the region to restrict Russian shipping, Russian Ambassador to Stockholm Sergey Belyaev told Izvestia. Denmark and Sweden, following Germany, began to require insurance documents from tankers. To de-escalate in the Baltic region, it is necessary to create an organization like the Arctic Council, Richard Balfe, a member of the British House of Lords, told Izvestia. How to cool down tensions and avoid collisions at sea — in the Izvestia article.

What are the threats posed by NATO in Northern Europe

NATO countries are rapidly militarizing the Baltic Sea, and one of its goals is to create artificial restrictions on Russian shipping. This was stated to Izvestia by Russian Ambassador to Sweden Sergey Belyaev.

— The number of exercises involving NATO warships and aircraft in the region has increased significantly. At the same time, the members of the bloc are increasing their presence in the Baltic Sea, including with the aim of creating artificial restrictions on Russian shipping. The specific parameters of Sweden's participation in this process are being determined," he said.

Russia will be ready to provide an adequate response if NATO forces and assets are deployed in Sweden, the diplomat noted.

— As for the possible deployment of foreign military bases, military equipment and weapons on Swedish territory, especially its strike types, we keep the situation in this area in constant focus. Since joining NATO, Stockholm has been actively developing military cooperation not only with the bloc as a whole, but also with its individual member states, primarily the United States and France. Of course, if NATO forces and assets are deployed in Sweden, our country will be ready to provide an adequate response," Sergei Belyaev said.

Russia will respond to the militarization of the Baltic Sea by NATO countries not only politically, Grigory Karasin, chairman of the Federation Council Committee on International Affairs, told Izvestia.

— We will also consider some other counter-actions against our neighbors, who for some reason have begun, in fact, to block and provoke the Russian Federation in this area, which is strategically important for the Russian economy, social relations, and defense. The reaction will not slow down," he stressed.

The Baltic is an absolute sphere of Russian interests, and the Russian Federation will actively resist all attempts by the West to block Russian Baltic ports and access to the sea from St. Petersburg and Kaliningrad, said Alexey Zhuravlev, First Deputy Chairman of the State Duma Committee on Defense.

"In principle, our capabilities have already been demonstrated when an Estonian patrol tried to stop a tanker en route from the Russian Ust-Luga,— he told Izvestia. — Actually, even our artillery batteries are quite capable of reaching the opposite shore of the Gulf of Finland, not to mention the range of missile weapons. In the meantime, the Baltic Fleet is sufficient for the safety of our merchant ships.

In recent months, the situation in Northern Europe has significantly worsened due to increased NATO activity. So, in June, the alliance conducted large-scale exercises Baltops-25 in the Baltic Sea, and also sent 45 robotic vessels there. According to the alliance, they are designed "to protect critical infrastructure." Tanker incidents are also becoming frequent. Some countries in the region, such as Estonia, openly declare their intention to stop ships suspected of transporting Russian oil. Sweden and Denmark, following Germany, began demanding insurance documents from tankers passing through their waters in the Baltic Sea to combat ships carrying oil, which in the West is considered Russia's shadow fleet.

The actions of Germany and other countries to check the insurance of tankers when they pass through international waters can be considered an excess of authority. They are justified only if the ship passes through territorial waters or requests permission to dock, Vladimir Olenchenko, senior researcher at the IMEMO RAS, told Izvestia.

"Ships that are being checked or stopped have the right to self—defense, this point escapes the attention of the Swedish and German authorities," the expert emphasized.

NATO is also strengthening its position in the Arctic region. Earlier it became known that Germany would send warships to the region to demonstrate its presence there. In addition, Joint Viking exercises were held in northern Norway in March 2025, in which 10,000 troops from nine NATO countries took part. In 2023, a Viking base was opened in the northern part of the kingdom, housing 1,000 British commandos, as well as Dutch Marines.

The Nordic countries are consistently following the path of militarization. At the end of June, Norway presented for the first time a nuclear security strategy, which it linked to the military conflict in Ukraine. Denmark has extended compulsory conscription to women. Finland became a member of NATO in 2023, and Sweden joined the bloc in 2024. Some Swedish political forces are openly calling for the establishment of alliance bases in the country.

How can the situation in the Baltic be resolved

Russia is responding adequately to NATO's efforts to militarize the Baltic region. After 2014, our military grouping in the Baltic region has been strengthening. In particular, the Leningrad Military District (LVO) has now been recreated, the 11th Army Corps in the Kaliningrad region, the 44th Army Corps in Karelia and the 18th Guards Motorized Rifle Division in the Kaliningrad Region have been formed.

— The Iskander-M operational and tactical missile systems and the Bal and Bastion coastal missile systems are deployed in the Kaliningrad Region. In August 2022, three MiG-31I carrier aircraft with Kinzhal hypersonic missiles flew to the Kaliningrad Region. The air defense and missile defense systems of St. Petersburg, Leningrad and Kaliningrad regions were reinforced with S-400 Triumph anti-aircraft missile systems. The Baltic Fleet has received small missile ships (MRCS) with Kalibr cruise missiles," Yuri Zverev, director of the Center for Foreign Regional Studies and Regional Studies at the I. Kant BFU, told Izvestia.

The expert drew attention to the fact that in the new edition of the "Fundamentals of the State Policy of the Russian Federation in the field of nuclear deterrence" of 2024, the actions of a potential enemy aimed at isolating part of the territory of the Russian Federation are also included among the main military dangers to neutralize which nuclear deterrence is carried out. We are talking about a response to a possible attempt to blockade the Kaliningrad region.

The escalation of tension poses a danger to the alliance's member countries themselves. Richard Balfe, a member of the House of Lords of the British Parliament, believes that Western countries and the Russian Federation need to create an Arctic Council-type structure in which all the countries of Northern Europe can work.

— To a certain extent, the Arctic Council serves as a possible starting point. But most importantly, we need to create an institutional framework that everyone will respect. It may well include a promise not to conduct NATO exercises in the Baltic states in exchange for border guarantees from all of the above-mentioned states. As well as a mutual agreement not to interfere in each other's cable networks and other marine infrastructure," the politician told Izvestia.

The Council of the Baltic Sea Countries (CBSS) is already active in the Baltic region. Russia left it in 2022, accusing its members of politicizing their activities. "The states of NATO and the European Union in the council have abandoned the equal dialogue and principles on which this regional structure in the Baltic was created, and are consistently turning it into an instrument of anti—Russian policy," the Russian Foreign Ministry said.

The Arctic Council is, in fact, the only surviving format of multilateral cooperation in high latitudes that is in demand for developing effective collective solutions to the most pressing issues, Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Alexander Grushko said earlier. In February 2024, Russia suspended the payment of annual contributions to the Arctic Council until the resumption of practical work in this format with the participation of all member countries. In March 2022, all the Western member countries of the organization announced their refusal to participate in its events in protest against the outbreak of its conflict in Ukraine. The Russian Foreign Ministry considered this decision politicized and irrational. Grigory Karasin, in a comment to Izvestia, stressed that Russia's neighboring countries are hindering any intensification of the work of the Arctic Council.