Warsaw conspiracy: what to expect from the Polish EU Presidency

Warsaw is preparing to take over the baton of the presidency of the EU Council from Hungary. Relations between Russia and Poland will not change in the foreseeable future, our embassy in Poland told Izvestiya. Unlike Budapest, which has put forward initiatives to settle the situation in Ukraine, Warsaw will continue to support Kiev without giving up possible ceasefire talks. In addition, Poland will use its presidency to return to the EU institutions and strengthen its shaken positions in Central Europe, experts interviewed by Izvestia believe.

How Russia-Poland relations will change

The ceremony, which takes place on December 16-17, will see the official transfer of the presidency of the EU Council from Hungary to Poland. Formally, Warsaw will receive this status on January 1, 2025. It should be reminded that the country presiding over the EU Council determines the agenda of its meetings and the program of actions of other European institutions, including in foreign policy.

The program of the Polish presidency of the EU Council states that Russia is an "aggressor" and allegedly threatens the security of the entire continent. Against this background, it is obvious that Warsaw's presidency of the EU Council will not change the nature of bilateral relations.

- There is no cooperation between Russia and Poland and is not expected in the foreseeable future," the Russian Embassy in Poland told Izvestia.

The main topic of the Polish presidency of the EU Council will be support for Ukraine and anti-Russian policy. Warsaw has positioned itself as one of the EU's main bulwarks in the confrontation with Russia since the beginning of the EEU. Poland has spent 3.3% of its GDP - more than $26 billion - to help Ukraine, of which $3 billion is for military support alone. In addition, it is worth recalling that the operation of the AFU in Kursk region was prepared with the participation of special services of the USA, Great Britain and just Poland, the Foreign Intelligence Service reported earlier.

Poland will hold a conference on the topic of sanctions against Russia and Belarus in February 2025. Warsaw will try to persuade other Western countries to spend frozen Russian assets in Ukraine and fight against circumvention of restrictions, said the head of the Foreign Ministry of the Republic Radoslaw Sikorski.

However, there is almost no space left for new sanctions against Russia; the restrictions have reached their limit, said former Sejm deputy Mateusz Piskorski.

- The scale of the current sanctions is so large that it is actually hard to imagine what kind of measures could be proposed. Poland will defend the position of extending the restrictions that already exist," he told Izvestia.

At the same time, Poland's position changed slightly after Donald Trump won the US presidential election. Warsaw was previously ready to lead a coalition of countries that would bring their armed forces into Ukraine. But seeing that Washington may not support such a scenario, Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk recently announced the absence of intentions to send soldiers to help the Kiev regime, Oleg Nemensky, a researcher at the Institute of Slavic Studies of the Russian Academy of Sciences, told Izvestia. In addition, on December 10, the head of the Polish government unexpectedly announced that negotiations on a ceasefire in Ukraine could begin as early as this winter.

On the other hand, Polish-Ukrainian relations should not be considered devoid of crisis moments. During its presidency, Poland will probably try to take measures to limit Ukrainian imports, Mateusz Piskorski suggests. Recall that in 2022, the EU canceled duties and quotas on imports from Ukraine to support its agricultural producers. Against this background, protests of disgruntled farmers started in several European countries, including Poland.

Contradictions between Ukraine and Poland exist not only in the economic sphere. Warsaw demands that Kiev recognize the Volyn massacre of 1943-1944 as genocide and allow the exhumation of the remains of the victims. According to Polish diplomats, Warsaw will use its EU presidency in the first half of 2025 to pressure Ukraine on this issue.

Poland regains influence in the EU

Warsaw will have to maximize its return to the European authorities, because under the previous government Poland was a political marginal in the EU, said Oleg Nemensky. In particular, in 2021, the EU imposed financial sanctions against Warsaw because of the judicial reform. Only in February 2024, the European Commission returned the blocked €137 billion.

The difficulty lies in the internal conflict in the Polish leadership. Prime Minister Donald Tusk and President Andrzej Duda belong to different parties. There is an ongoing confrontation between the two politicians, which may come to an end if the Polish prime minister's running mate wins the presidential election in spring 2025.

- Donald Tusk is a man who is maximally integrated into the European political elites, he is the person who can most easily negotiate in Brussels to promote Polish interests," added Oleg Nemenski.

Another important task for Warsaw will be to strengthen its position in Central Europe. Just on December 16, a summit of the presidents of the Visegrad Group, which includes Poland, the Czech Republic, Slovakia and Hungary, was held. However, this association is becoming less and less effective, says Mateusz Piskorski. And the main reason is the different positions on the situation in Ukraine. While Poland continues to support Kiev, Slovakia and Hungary are in favor of a peaceful resolution of the crisis, and soon the Czech Republic may join them, if billionaire Andrej Babiš comes to power again as a result of parliamentary elections in 2025.

- It is hard to imagine that the Visegrad Group will be able to develop any common position on the Ukrainian crisis," says Mateusz Piskorski.

However, Warsaw can begin to position itself as the main force among the Central European Quartet, which makes a serious contribution to supporting Ukraine and, in general, to solving security-related issues.

Poland also claims to shape the pan-European policy towards the post-Soviet space. In particular, the Eastern Partnership program may be extended to Kazakhstan. This is an old initiative, which Donald Tusk's party "Civic Platform" promoted in the previous period of its stay in power, recalled Oleg Nemensky.

Theresults of the Hungarian Presidency of the Council of the EU

It should be recalled that, in contrast to Warsaw's intentions, Budapest has been actively pursuing initiatives to resolve the situation in Ukraine. In July 2024, Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban visited Kiev, Moscow, Beijing and Washington, offering options for a peace agreement. Budapest's actions provoked an angry reaction from Brussels at the time: the European Commission refused to even discuss the results of Orban's visits to Russia and China.

However, the Hungarian leader did not stop there. In December, Orban proposed the idea of a prisoner exchange between Russia and Ukraine and a Christmas ceasefire. Russia supported Hungary's initiative, Russian leader's spokesman Dmitry Peskov said. However, Volodymyr Zelensky rejected it, refusing phone talks with the Hungarian prime minister. The Hungarian foreign minister called Ukraine's decision "a gesture absolutely unprecedented in diplomacy." In the EU itself, the initiative has also not officially found support.

"At the end of the Hungarian EU presidency, we took new actions in the name of peace. We proposed a ceasefire for Christmas and a large-scale exchange of prisoners. How sad that <...> Zelensky today rejected and ruled it out. We did everything we could!" - Viktor Orban wrote on social media.

Against the backdrop of Ukraine's rejection, Orban's ideas found understanding among other NATO members. For example, Trump's team said it was ready to study the Hungarian prime minister's proposals, said Mike Waltz, who is likely to take over as the future assistant to the president for national security. At the same time, Trump said he has received signals from Kiev that it is eager to reach a settlement with Russian Federation. He is personally ready to start contact with Vladimir Putin on this issue.

However, it is worth noting that the Hungarian presidency was not focused exclusively on the Ukrainian issue. Other priorities included increasing the EU's competitiveness, fighting illegal migration, and integrating the Western Balkan countries. At the same time, Budapest managed to achieve some successes in these areas. For example, on January 1, 2025, Romania and Bulgaria will join the Schengen zone. Earlier, the complete abolition of border controls was blocked for almost two years by Austria, whose authorities feared a mass infiltration of illegal migrants into the EU. Hungary managed to convince Vienna to lift its veto. Therefore, Budapest considers its presidency a success.